Your 2027 Social Security “raise” lands October 14 — and the tax line was drawn in 1983.

The official 2027 cost-of-living adjustment is announced October 14 — projected near 3.5–3.6%, potentially the biggest raise since 2023. But the income thresholds that decide whether your benefits get taxed were set by Congress in 1983 and 1993 — and they have never moved.

Mark the calendar: the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the September inflation report on Wednesday, October 14, at 8:30 AM ET — and shortly after, the Social Security Administration announces the 2027 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), effective with January 2027 payments for roughly 71 million beneficiaries (per SSA’s current figures).

The raise: projected to be the biggest since 2023

The COLA isn’t a guess by committee — it’s a formula. Social Security compares the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) for July, August, and September of this year against the same three months last year. Two of the three months are already in.

Here’s what the forecasters say — and remember, every figure in this section is a projection, not the official number:

• The Senior Citizens League: 3.5%.
• AARP: 3.6%.
• The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget: 3.2% — the conservative end of the range.

If the final number lands near the top of that range, it would be the biggest COLA since the 8.7% jump of 2023 — and well above last year’s 2.8%. In dollars, 3.5% on the average retired-worker check (about $2,071 a month, per SSA’s current figures) works out to roughly $72 more a month.

One automatic subtraction first: for most beneficiaries, the Medicare Part B premium comes straight out of the Social Security check. The 2026 premium is a confirmed $202.90 a month — and the 2026 Medicare Trustees Report projects $209.50 for 2027, up $6.60. The official 2027 number comes from CMS this fall, so treat it as a projection, not a promise. Net of that, the headline raise is really about $66 a month — before the tax question even comes up.

The frozen tax line

Here’s the part the headlines skip. Whether your Social Security benefits get taxed depends on your “combined income” — roughly your income (including tax-exempt interest) plus half of your Social Security benefits. The thresholds:

• Single filers: combined income of $25,000–$34,000 → up to 50% of benefits may be taxable. Over $34,000 → up to 85%.
• Joint filers: $32,000–$44,000 → up to 50%. Over $44,000 → up to 85%.

Congress set those lines in the tax law in 1983 (the 50% tiers) and 1993 (the 85% tiers) — and they have never been adjusted for inflation. Four decades of raises, and the goalposts haven’t moved an inch. So every COLA can quietly push more retirees across a line where a bigger slice of the check becomes taxable. They gave you a raise and billed you in the same envelope.

One clarification, because this gets mangled online: “up to 85% taxable” does not mean an 85% tax rate. It means up to 85% of your benefit can count as taxable income — taxed at your ordinary income-tax rate, like the rest of your income.

The counterweight

One offset worth knowing: the 2025 tax law added a temporary $6,000 deduction for filers 65 and older ($12,000 for couples where both qualify), for tax years 2025 through 2028. It phases out at higher incomes and works whether you itemize or take the standard deduction — so it may soften the bite for some retirees. Whether it helps you is a question for a CPA, not a headline.

Alex Volkov, CPA is a New York-licensed CPA with over two decades in accounting, focused on resolving IRS tax problems — back taxes, liens, levies, garnishments, and audits — for individuals and businesses nationwide.